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11	September 2019

Previously on Number Mill: Cam Meredith |

Markus Wheaton / DVOA | Dontrelle Inman | Chiefs Offense | FA Receivers 1 | FA Receivers 2 | FA Edge Rushers / SAQ | Trubisky�s rookie performance / Odds Ratios | HeatvantageThere are many ways of measuring a pass rusher�s production Kerrith Whyte Jersey Color Rush , from total sacks, to total pressures, to combined units such as Pro Football Focus� PRP (Pass rush productivity). There are many ways, but none are as truly transcendent or narrowly-revered as the Sack Attack Quotient (SAQ), developed by myself last off-season in an effort to sort through the dregs of free agent past rushers.For those that missed it, the SAQ is a combined unit which weighs a player�s sacks, hurries, and hits based on their relative value on affecting a football game. The SAQ is reported as sack equivalents per 100 pass rush attempts, treating a hit as .25 sack equivalents and a hurry as .1 sack equivalents. Unfortunately, I must keep secret the number of sack equivalents a sack is worth to protect my proprietary formula.Having arguably the best pass rusher in football on the Bears, I�ve been eager to take a look at how Khalil Mack performs according to my precious SAQ metric. The difficulty in calculating the sack is that it requires knowing how many of a player�s snaps are actual pass rush attempts�data which is not readily available. I�ve recently gotten my paws on pass rush attempt numbers during Khalil Mack�s career courtesy of PFF, so let�s dig in!2018 SAQ Leaders (data through week 12)Top 100 SAQ leaders for 2018 weeks 1 through 12. Minimum 100 pass rush attempts. Ok. What in the cheese-mold depths of the nine yellow and gold hells happened here? Clearly, in sample sizes under 150 pass rush attempts Kerrith Whyte Chicago Bears Jerseys , this metric is vulnerable to spurious results. I need a do-over.2018 SAQ Leaders (with at least 150 pass rush attempts)Top SAQ leaders 2018 weeks 1 through 12. Minimum 150 pass rush attempts. Ok. At least this is not painful to look at. It�s also not as pleasing as I�d hoped. Khalil Mack sits all the way down at 18th in terms of SAQ this year. And remember, this is a per rush attempt metric, so missing games doesn�t hurt him. Playing hurt, however, certainly did hurt him. SAQ is a measure of production and not talent. Most importantly, it doesn�t account for the way teams game-plan against Mack. It doesn�t account for double teams, triple teams, fast-pass play-calling, or quarterbacks rolling away from Mack�s direction every drop back out of subconscious primal fear.What is encouraging is seeing five Bears in the top 100 (4 once I dropped out the low sample size Bilal Nichols). On average, each team should have three on this list, and the high amount of Navy and Orange representation confirms what we already know: the Bears pass rush is good.I still am not happy with Khalil Mack being 18th on my list. Not so much because it makes him look bad, but because I�m afraid it makes my metric look bad. In an attempt to salvage the SAQs reputation, I went back for the past 4 years and collected cumulative stats for all players with top 100 SAQ ratings in each of those 4 years. I set those criteria because consistency and availability are both highly valuable traits that our big beautiful Bear specializes in.Perhaps the most concerning thing on this table is staring at us right at the top. This Sunday night Chicago Bears Jerseys Stitched , rookie James Daniel and replacement Bryan Witzmann are scheduled to face Aaron Donald, the man with the most productive pass-rushing season this year. I�ve known Donald was having a good season, and I�ve seen a few Rams games, but seeing these numbers confirms that Donald is having the best pass-rushing season by an interior lineman of all time. Donald is getting as much attention from offensive coordinators as Mack and still producing at a record-breaking level.Dammit. I want that man in a Bear costume. And a navy uniform.4-year SAQ rating for all players with a top 100 SAQ finish in each of the last 4 yearsAll players who ranked in the top 100 SAQ every year 2015-2018. Minimum 100 pass rush attempts yearly. Aside from Mario Addison poking his underrated nose in and making me look bad, this table reads closer to what I expected to see. Von Miller is allowed to be ahead of Mack because he�s aging out anyway and he�s benefited from elite talent across from him in Demarcus Ware and Bradley Chubb. And Aaron Donald is allowed to be ahead of Mack because I�m coming to believe he�s the best player in the NFL.Also, haayyyyy Akiem. I see you staying all consistent and available down there too.SAQ is a measure of production. Production doesn�t always accurately represent talent. Perhaps the fact that Khalil Mack doesn�t have top production is actually a sign that he�s better than everyone�it reflects just how far opponents go out of their way to limit his production. Either way, Khalil Mack is one of the most consistently productive pass rushers in the league, and Aaron Donald is terrifying. All statistics and snap counts are taken directly from the NFL�s Game Statistic and Information System.The teams stats for the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers were very similar in Sunday�s 24-17 Chicago victory, but one team made plays with they had to and the other one didn�t. Each team had 19 first downs. The Packers converted 36% of their third down tries, while the Bears were at 30%. Chicago had a slight edge in total yards 329 to 323, and in time of possession 30:23 to 29:37. There were a few places where the Bears� edge really tipped the scales on Sunday though. Green Bay was penalized more (7 for 48 yards to 4 for 24), the Bears had a huge advantage in return yards (66 to 0), they had 5 sacks to only one for Green Bay Womens Kerrith Whyte Jersey , and Chicago was 3 for 4 on red zone efficiency while Green Bay was only 1 for 4. All three phases came through for the Bears in a complete win. Now let�s take a closer look at the playing time break downs for the Bears, and also a few of the individual stats.OFFENSEMitchell Trubisky had himself a hell of a game. The numbers weren�t eye-popping, but he commanded his offense again and he not only bounced back from his worst game as a pro (the SNF game against the Rams), but he did a complete 180 from week 1 against the Packers. Go watch the tape from the season opener and then watch Sunday�s game. Trubisky is developing nicely in the new offense. Against Green Bay he completed 20 of 28 passes for 235 yards, 2 touchdowns and a passer rating of 120.4.He also ran for 16 yards, but his ability to move and keep plays alive was huge this game. More and more, he�s looking like the franchise quarterback the Bears traded up for.Jordan Howard had 20 touches, 75 yards and a TD run, while Tarik Cohen had 12 total touches with 104 all purpose yards and a TD catch.Tight end Trey Burton caught the other TD pass and he had 4 grabs (7 targets) for 36 yards. Adam Shaheen had 2 receptions for 39 yards. Allen Robinson II led the Bears with 54 receiving yards (7 targets and 3 receptions), and Taylor Gabriel had 3 catches for 33 yards. Chicago�s offensive line has the least holds called against them this year, but center Cody Whitehair did pick up their 8th of the season. James Daniels and Charles Leno Jr. each got caught on a false start, but Leno finished 1 for 1 in marriage proposals. Overall, Chicgao�s o-line helped hold the Packers to only 1 sack Kerrith Whyte Jersey 2019 , 1 QB hit, and 3 tackles for loss. DEFENSEChicago�s defense has played their best games back to back weeks in holding Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers to their lowest passer rating of the season. The Bears� linebacker crew led the way on Sunday with Khalil Mack (6 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 TFL, 3 QBH), Leonard Floyd (6 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 3 QBH), and Roquan Smith (10 tackles, 1 PD) each putting their stamp on the game. Eddie Jackson had a game clinching interception right before spraining his ankle. He also had 6 tackles and 2 PD. Adrian Amos had 5 tackles, Sherrick McManis and Kyle Fuller also had a couple passes defended (and 2 tackles) apiece. McManis also added a QBH while playing on 91% of the defensive snaps. If there was a drop off from Bryce Callahan at nickle, it didn�t show up on Sunday. Rookie d-lineman Bilal Nichols had a half a sack White Kerrith Whyte Jersey , and Akiem Hicks led the position group with 3 tackles.SPECIAL TEAMSThe players listed above only appeared in the third phase.Can we talk about Josh Bellamy for a second? I know most Bears� fans cringe when thinking of him, but he made a few nice plays covering punts and had a spectacular catch in traffic. He�s in the perfect role as the 4th wide out and special teams ace. He�s been around since the Marc Trestman era, and is one of the longest tenured Bears. His path to get where he is, his plucky play, and his swag should make him a fan favorite.Patrick O�Donnell had another good day punting with a 44.3 yard average and 2 punts inside the 20. He�s now tied for 10th in the league with 25 punts dropped inside the twenty, tied for 3rd with 12 punts downed, and he�s way down the list at 24th with only 19 punts returned for 146 yards, which gives a nod to the good coverage team as well. Cody Parkey had a perfect day with 5 for 5 kickoffs not being returned, 3 for 3 extra points made, and he hit a 24 yard field goal in the 4th quarter. Any of these numbers stand out to you guys this week?To check out all the team and individual stats from the game, I find that ESPN has an easy to navigate site. Just click the links above to see the full statistical picture.