coordinator’s job could

The Packers run too often on 2nd- or 3rd-and-long The Green Bay Packers beat the Buffalo Bills badly on Sunday JK Scott Jersey , but no one was happy with the offense and with good reason. Six of those 22 points came on long field goals, and McCarthy seemed to settle for another long field goal attempt on the first drive, though Jamaal Williams was unable to gain sufficient yardage on a third-down play to try it.McCarthy settles a lot, and that’s becoming big problem because it costs the team possessions. There are two major philosophies about picking up first downs. The first, older philosophy captures the NFL standard for most of the 1980s and 90s, which holds that first and second downs are to be used to make 3rd down easier.A few four-yards runs on the early downs will give the team flexibility to either run or pass on 3rd and short, making for an easy conversion. The new philosophy holds that offenses are now so good (and defenses so restrained) that it’s more efficient to give yourself as many opportunities as possible to gain ten yards on an individual passing play, and that the vast majority of the time, any quarterback will complete a 10-yard pass before they are forced to punt.While you do need to run sometimes, just to prove that you might, the latter philosophy is far closer to optimal. We know that, on first down, a successful play must pick up at least 4 yards, and in reality that number is probably closer to 5. Your subsequent 2nd and 3rd down plays are really only successful if they pick up the first down, which means that if your first down play fails and leaves you with six yards to go or more, running is almost always a bad idea because runs don’t generally pick up big yardage. Smart teams know this.For instance, let’s look at the Rams, who are currently the cream of the crop in terms of football smarts. On 2nd or 3rd down, with 6 yards or more to go, and when the game is within one score, the Rams have passed 87% of the time. They have only run in this situation four times all season. It’s just not something they do. In the aggregate, their plays have been successful 52% of the time, while their passing plays have been successful 60% of the time. The Packers, on the other hand, still strive for balance in these scenarios. They have passed only 68% of the time and run 32% of the time. Those runs have only succeeded 1/3 of the time, and overall in these situations, the Packers only succeed 38% of the time. We tend to focus on 3rd down efficiency, but the Packers are basically pissing away plays and drives every time they do this. Despite the fact that the Packers have an all-time great quarterback, only seven teams pass less than the Packers in this situation, which is insane. On their first drive against the Bills, the Packers faced 2nd and 10 from the Buffalo 40-yard line. Either McCarthy or Rodgers called a run to Jamaal Williams, the worst Packer runner, that lost a yard. Incredibly, on 3rd and 11, they went back to the same well, and Williams was stoned for no gain. Even if Williams hadn’t been completely stuffed, the best case scenario for those play calls was a slightly shorter but still long field goal attempt Kevin King Jersey , which is hardly an ideal outcome. It is these pointless plays and drives that seems designed specifically to not score, which cause the offense such problems. The Packers then did this again in the 3rd quarter when up 19-0. The team faced 3rd and 10 and called a run to Ty Montgomery, which was stuffed for a loss of one. The Packers were forced to punt from their own 18, and the defense was fortunate to preserve the shutout.The fact of the matter is that smart teams don’t operate this way. They pass more frequently and with more success when a first down is still in doubt. The actual plays that were called against the Bills were not half bad, and the second drive of the game — which resulted in a touchdown — was a thing of beauty. But the problems with the offense are deeper than individual play design. They show a fundamental lack of football understanding. McCarthy’s focus on execution has always been about the trees, but much of the rest of the NFL now runs a hyper-efficient forest, and Mike just doesn’t see it. NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — The Green Bay Packers are turning to fast-rising offensive whiz Matt LaFleur to aid Aaron Rodgers and end a two-year absence from the postseason.LaFleur accepted an offer Monday to become the next head coach of the Packers, according to a person familiar with the decision. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because neither the Packers nor the Titans had announced the decision.The 39-year-old LaFleur spent this season as offensive coordinator for the Titans, his first calling plays in the NFL. He takes over for Mike McCarthy, who was fired during the season following a stunning home loss to Arizona on Dec. 2. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin went 2-2 to close out the season as the Packers failed to reach the playoffs for the second straight year with a 6-9-1 record that was the second straight under .500 for the storied franchise.He was offensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams in 2017, leading a group that paced the NFL in scoring and was 10th in total offense under coach Sean McVay, who called the plays on offense. LaFleur was the quarterbacks coach in Atlanta for two seasons, including when Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was the NFL MVP in 2016. LaFleur also has coached with Washington and Houston, and was the quarterbacks coach for Notre Dame in 2014.He will be charged with returning the Packers to the playoffs on a regular basis. McCarthy’s tenure of 12-plus seasons was by and large successful, highlighted by the 2010 Super Bowl season and nine playoff appearances.Still, the once potent offense that could make up for other deficiencies slowed in 2018, a tumultuous year that began with Rodgers leading a stirring comeback victory in the opener over the Bears.The two-time NFL MVP returned after halftime from a left knee injury that nagged him the rest of the season.Rodgers’ 62.3 percent completion rate was his lowest since 2015 (60.7) and his 25 touchdown passes were a low for a season in which he played at least 15 games, though so were his two interceptions.Injuries to Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison forced the Packers to turn to rookies perhaps earlier than expected, though Davante Adams emerged as an elite receiver.The relationship between LaFleur and Rodgers will be closely watched after the sometimes tenuous moments between the star QB and McCarthy. They characterized their relationship as close, but with ups and downs that come with two headstrong competitors who had worked together for more than a dozen years.The Packers reportedly interviewed several candidates with head-coaching experience, including Philbin, Chuck Pagano, Adam Gase and Jim Caldwell. The instead opted for LaFleur, who had never called plays before this season and until now has never been in charge of an entire roster.It is just one element of an offseason of change ahead in Green Bay.Clay Matthews, one of the last remaining links to Green Bay’s Super Bowl-winning season, is a free agent after finishing with a career-low 3½ sacks in his 10th season with the Packers but the first under the tweaked 3-4 scheme installed by first-year coordinator Mike Pettine.Cobb is also a prominent free agent for Green Bay, and a steady, experienced target for Rodgers — if he returns.The running game could be a strength next season behind Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones, who led the NFL in yards per carry before suffering a knee injury in mid-December. The coordinator’s job could be in flux, too. Philbin is well-liked by Rodgers and the 16-year NFL coaching veteran and he won respect from players for his even-keeled and straightforward demeanor in the transition following McCarthy’s firing.Pettine’s defense showed flashes in his first year on the job. First-round draft pick Jaire Alexander displayed the potential of playing like the top cornerback the Packers desperately need. Injuries struck the defensive line, which was one of the team’s strengths coming into the season, and the Packers lacked a consistent rush at outside linebacker outside of surprise sacks leader Kyler Fackrell (10½).Tennessee has changes coming, too. The Titans went 9-7 and missed the playoffs, ending the season ranked 27th in scoring and 25th in total offense while injuries took a toll. Quarterback Marcus Mariota will soon be working with his fourth offensive coordinator in five seasons.

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