
Forum �bersicht Suche Login Registrieren Forums-Blog Landkarte

02	November 2018

Cowboys Poll: How many games must Jason Garrett win to keep his job

Things have not been going the Cowboys� way this year Womens Connor Williams Jersey , and that�s not just a knee-jerk reaction to the last games.No, things have been out of kilter for one reason or another since Week 1. In fact, things have been out of kilter since the Atlanta game in Week 10 last year. How much out of kilter? Just look at these stats over the last 13 games:Points scored: 211 (NFL rank: 31st)Pass attempts: 376 (30th)Passing Yards per Attempt: 5.91 (29th)Offensive Passer Rating: 73.9 (27th)And if things remain the same as they�ve been for those 13 games, the team will be lucky to finish this year with an 8-8 record. The Pythagorean Formula (for more details, go here) was developed to measure overall team strength on the hypothesis that a team�s true strength could be measured more accurately by looking at points scored and points allowed, rather than by looking at wins and losses. The interesting thing about the formula, at least for our purposes today, is you can calculate a projected season win total after every single game. Which is exactly what I did with the cumulative points differentials after each game: Obviously, the results here get more robust with every additional data point. After some wild swings in the first two game, the win projection has settled in at around six to seven wins since. And this far into the season, the data is robust enough to suggest that the Cowboys are not suddenly going to go on a six-game win streak.Another method to calculate projected wins is via passer rating differential (PRD). We know that PRD is one of the stats most closely linked to winning in the NFL. And PRD can be plugged into a very simple formula to predict win totals in the NFL. The PRD formula (Projected Wins = PRD*0.16+8) has shown a fairly close correlation with the Cowboys� actual wins over the last decade or so, but has been oddly off the last few years: Overall, the PRD formula generates a mean average error of 1.9 games over the last four seasons, which isn�t great, and is off significantly more in the last two years. This suggests that unlike previous years, the performance in the passing game for the Cowboys is not as big a determinant in their W/L loss as in the previous year.Coincidentally, with the arrival of Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas and the departure of Tony Romo in 2016, the Cowboys became a much more run-oriented team, so I figured that I had to find a way to account for the running game in the PRD formula. So I played around withe the data a bit came up with a modified PRD Formula that includes a team�s rushing yards differential (RYD) as follows: Projected Wins = (PRD + RYD/50) * 0.16 + 8.In statistics, the relationship between two variables is called a correlation, and the strength of that correlation is measured by the �correlation coefficient�. This coefficient (r虏) is expressed as a number between 1 and -1. The closer the r虏 number is to 1 or -1 Youth Byron Jones Jersey , the stronger the relationship between the two variables. The closer it is to zero, the weaker the relationship. I ran the original PRD formula against the 2017 regular season results for all 32 teams, and r虏 between Passer Rating Differential (PRD) and wins in 2017 was 0.62. Not bad, but not great either. Rushing yards differential for 2017 was a decidedly unimpressive 0.17, which is one reason why so many stat heads poo-poo the running game and suggest teams need to pass more. But after a little tinkering, something interesting happened. The modified PRD, which now includes rushing yards differential, came back with an r虏 of 0.77 which is one of the strongest correlations you�ll find outside of points differential. Here�s a graph that illustrates the correlation between the modified PRD formula and wins for all 32 NFL teams in 2017:In terms of Mean Average Error, the original PRD Formula was off by 1.6 games on average in 2017, the modified PRD reduced that 1.3 games. And once applied to the last few Cowboys season, the modified PRD also delivered much better results: With the modified PRD, the mean average error for the Cowboys improved from 1.9 to a very impressive 0.9 wins. So what does the modified PRD project as the final record for the 2-3 Cowboys? With a PRD after five games of -22.5 and a RYD of +200, the formula projects 5.5 wins for the Cowboys this year.So the Pythagorean Formula has the 2018 Cowboys at 6.6 wins, the modified PRD sees them at 5.5 wins (both projections already factor in the Cowboys� two wins). The modified PRD tells basically the same story as the Pythagorean formula, even if the projected win totals are a little lower. Want more projection? Fivethirtyeight.com has the Cowboys at 7.5 wins. Football Outsiders project the Cowboys for 7.4 wins.Looks like the 2018 Cowboys are likely headed to a six- or seven-win season, with eight wins as a clear ceiling. Which brings us to the titular question of this post. How many games must Jason Garrett win to keep his job?Many fans would like to fire Garrett regardless of his record this year, but that�s not the way the Cowboys operate, as Tom Ryle pointed out the end of last season: Jason Garrett is in his ninth season as a head coach with the Cowboys, and has had plenty of time to mold the team to his wishes. Yet all he has to show for it is one playoff win, a 65-59 career record, and another season that that looks to be his fifth non-winning season. Of course http://www.thecowboysfootballauthentic.com/jeff-heath-jersey-authentic , none of this would have been possible without the ineptness of the father-son duo playing GM. Yet those two will be the final arbiters of Garrett�s fate, and as Tom points out, they might wimp out at firing Garret just as Garrett wimped out on the 4th-and-1 in Houston.No such wimping in Vegas, where Garrett is now listed as the mostly likely head coach to be fired first.And Jerry Jones wasn�t too happy about his coach on Sunday either. RJ Ochoa pointed out that Jones publicly contradicting Garrett�s decision to punt doesn�t bode well for the coach. So how many wins will it take for Jerry Jones to hang on to Garrett for yet another season?Give your answer in the attached poll or in the comments section below.Point/Counterpoint: Can these four Cowboys stars rebound from bad performances? With the Dallas Cowboys facing a suddenly very important game against the New York Giants, we are all wondering if they can bounce back from a very disappointing opener against the Carolina Panthers. In particular, the team saw some bad play from Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith, and Sean Lee, all of whom are going to be vital if the team is to overcome an 0-1 start. Can they play better this week? My co-author here at Blogging The Boys, Michael Strawn, and I sat down and had a little discussion about that.Michael: Well, those are actually four separate questions; three of those questions can be addressed with the same answer. I fully expect Tyron Smith, Sean Lee and Ezekiel Elliott to bounce back to form. Each of them are All-Pro players with long histories of elite level performance. A one game aberration won�t make me doubt what they can do. I put more faith in the body of each of those player�s work than I do in a single game after a long layoff.However, I can�t say the same regarding Dak Prescott. I�ve been a big Dak believer. But I was utterly appalled at his performance Sunday. He not only didn�t improve upon his second half 2017 performance, he regressed even further. At this point, I�m on the other side of the coin with him. Until he can prove he can again be 2016 Dak, I�ll have to assume that what we have seen recently is what we�ll get moving forward.Tom: Well, on the first three, the legalese that �past performance is no guarantee of future results� seems appropriate here. In the cases of Smith and Lee, both have been in the league a long time already http://www.cowboyscheapauthenticstore.com/tyrone-crawford-jersey-cheap , eight seasons for Smith and nine for Lee. All players face an inevitable point of decline, and while I certainly hope it is not so, they might have hit that point after all those games. Both have injury histories to worry about as well.With Zeke, it is more about the lack of time right now. He has gotten off to slow starts in his first two seasons, so a rebound is certainly likely. The problem is that it took him a couple of games to get on track the first two years, and the Cowboys just can�t afford that. They need him to get it going on Sunday.On Dak, I will say this in his defense. He is only entering his third year in the league, and the man so many use as a measuring stick for him, Tony Romo, did not become a starter until his fourth seaspn. There is certainly room for growth. The problem with him is like with Zeke: They can�t wait until next season to see him figure things out. Not if certain coaches want to keep their jobs.Michael: You raise a number of interesting points. I can�t really argue what you say about Tron and Lee; they are reaching the point of their careers where age-related declines could impact their performance (although it�s amazing to me that Smith is still only 28, the same age as Zack Martin). And yes, injuries have plagued Smith in recent years. But he looked better than he has in years in preseason. And his issues Sunday weren�t physical so much as mental; he frequently seemed confused on assignments and just failed to pick up his man. Lee, on the other hand, has always played well when he�s been on the field.But your final sentence regarding Dak is the elephant in the room. The Cowboys� brass effectively bet the team�s immediate and near future on Prescott. It was a sound bet based upon his 2016 performance. And it looked perfectly reasonable all the way through November of last year. At this moment, however, it�s looking very iffy. Prescott has played at a Brandon Weeden/Matt Cassell level for his last nine games. He currently ranks 24th in QBR (which has always valued him higher due to his running contributions). If he can�t turn it around, and pronto, as you say, the entire coaching staff likely won�t be here in a year. And the franchise will have been set back years as they look for their next franchise quarterback. No pressure, Dak.Tom: I do agree that the issues with both Smith and Lee looked mental. The question remains for them if they can clean up things in a week of practice. That is a concern, given how long they had to come out and get it right in the opener. As much respect as we all have for both of them Youth Allen Hurns Jersey , it is now a �prove it� situation. And the Cowboys need them to, because the loser of this game is all alone in last place in the NFC East, and that is a deep hole to climb out of, even this early.Zeke similarly showed some similar things, missing openings to just plow into the center of the formidable Panthers defense. With another pair of good defensive tackles lining up this week to stop him, he has to get things right as well. And he does not have the long years of experience to fall back on. He needs some help from the line and from Scott Linehan to put him in a better place to succeed.Dak makes it unanimous about mental breakdowns. He had happy feet and was just slow in his reads. Again, he needs more protection plus some help from Linehan, Jason Garrett (who is always very involved in the QB room), and Kellen Moore. And he needs to take in and use what they tell him.Michael: Again, all good points. I think we�re not really far apart here. It is somewhat surprising that after an offseason of concerns about the tight ends, receiving corps and safety position we�re talking about Smith, Lee and Elliott. I end where I began; I�m optimistic we see a return to form.Tom: I hope we do, but as I said, this is a prove it situation. But if there is a silver lining, it is that not all four have to get it down this week (assuming they come along later). The defense played well even with an off day from Lee, and if either Dak or Zeke is back to form, then the offense should do enough to win this one. Better play from Smith might be enough all by itself, given how that would impact both the passing and running game. But the team will need all four on track before too long. And they have to have at least some of these players back up to what they can be this week, or bad days are ahead.